More detail is offered in a methodology section, and we welcome critical feedback. In certain cases, we have consistently higher or lower estimate than other sources, which can be due to difficulties in identifying the exact cargo a ship is carrying (e.g., crude oil vs diesel) or the exact origin of oil (significant amounts of Kazakh origin crude oil leave from Russian ports). We have compiled our data from multiple sources and validated numbers against external sources, and we believe the data allows for sensible interpretation of trends over time. Our aim is to help fill in the gap by providing clear and comprehensive information on recent export volumes and routes.
Timely and publicly available data on Russian oil exports is insufficient (the best effort we are aware of comes from CREA who we build upon). Remaining Russian crude oil has historically been exported by sea to the EU, China, and other countries to a lesser extent. The Druzhba pipeline system carries oil to the EU, while the ESPO pipeline carries oil to China.
The two major routes for exporting crude oil are by pipeline and by oil tanker at sea. Figure 1 shows Russian average monthly crude oil exports in million tonnes for 2021. Domestically, Russia refined the remaining 290 million tonnes of which 140 million tonnes were exported as refined products (11% of global refined exports) and 150 million tonnes were consumed domestically ( BP). Of this, 260 million tonnes were exported directly as crude oil, comprising 13% of global exports. In 2021, Russia produced 540 million tonnes of crude oil, accounting for 13% of global production. We draw on a variety of sources to do so, beginning by decomposing pre-invasion crude oil exports in figure 1, and then providing monthly updates on how each export route is changing. In this dataset we focus on crude oil (not including refined oil products) exports from Russia. Consequently, the trade of Russian oil is rapidly changing. At the same time, the EU and G7 alliance, complemented by Norway, has introduced a price cap which domestic shipping and insurance services must respect when transporting Russian produce. For example, by insulating more homes, increasing the use of green gas and hydrogen, and installing additional wind turbines in the North Sea.The EU has placed embargoes on the import by sea of almost all Russian crude oil imports, and since 5 February, refined oil imports are also included.
The Russian government makes a lot of money by selling gas to the Netherlands and the rest of Europe. However, the uncertainty about the war is already causing a sharp increase in oil and gas prices.
The Netherlands has enough gas to get through the next winter season and the next few months after that. Russia’s war with Ukraine is having an impact on energy supplies in the Netherlands. At the same time the government wants to make sure that the Netherlands will still have enough energy in the future. The Netherlands wants to be less dependent on Russian gas.
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